BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD. 810 KIEWIT PLAZA OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
First Half Performance:
前半年的投资表现
During the first half of 1965, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (hereinafter call the “Dow”) declined from 874.13 to 868.03. This minor change was accomplished in a decidedly non-Euclidian manner. The Dow instead took the scenic route, reaching a high of 939.62 on May 14th. Adding back dividends on the Dow of 13.49 gives an overall gain through ownership of the Dow for the first half of 7.39 or 0.8%.
在1965年的前半年，道琼斯指数从874.13点下降到868.03点。这种微小的变化是以一种绝对非欧几里得的方式完成的。指数在5月14号达到939.62的高点，然后来了个漂亮的回落。再加上道指在前半年大约13.49点的分红，道指持有者前半年的收益大概在7.39点或者收益率为0.8%。
We had one of our better periods with an overall gain, before allocation to the general partner, of 10.4% or a 9.6 percentage point advantage over the Dow. To bring the record up to date, the following summarizes the year-by- year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation to the general partner, and the limited partners’ results:
我们整体的收益却明显更好，总体收益（不计算给一般合伙人的份额）达到10.4%比道指要好9.6个百分点。下图是最新的年化收益率对比，包含道指，合伙公司总收益，以及有限合伙人的收益：
(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity.
1） 基于每年道指的变化并算入当年股利的收入。
(2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner.
2）1957-1961年数据包含了所有之前有限合伙人的收益，去除了运营费用，但是没有把给普通合伙人的份额算入。
(3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.
3）这里1957-1961年的数据基于前列的数据，并把给普通合伙人的份额计入，但是对于每个月会提款的一半合伙人却没有计入。
Our constant admonitions have been: (1) that short-term results (less than three years) have little meaning, particularly in reference to an investment operation such as ours that may devote a portion of resources to control situations; and, (2) that our results, relative to the Dow and other common-stock-form media usually will be better in declining markets and may well have a difficult time just matching such media in very strong markets.
我们一贯的忠告: (1) 短期的收益（少于三年）毫无意义，特别是当我们的投资主要用在控制公司股权上时；(2)我们的投资收益往往会在市场下行或者熊市时表现更好，而在市场欣欣向荣时勉强持平。
With the latter point in mind, it might be imagined that we struggled during the first four months of the half to stay even with the Dow and then opened up our margin as it declined in May and June. Just the opposite occurred. We actually achieved a wide margin during the upswing and then fell at a rate fully equal to the Dow during the market decline.
根据上面的第二点，应该不难想象在前四个月我们的投资收益应该勉强和道指持平而在五六月份收益优于道指并拉开差距。但是事实相反，我们其实在一开始牛市的时候远超道指的收益，然后和道指一样同比下跌。
I don’t mention this because I am proud of such performance – on the contrary, I would prefer it if we had achieved our gain in the hypothesized manner. Rather, I mention it for two reasons: (1) you are always entitled to know when I am wrong as well as right; and, (2) it demonstrates that although we deal with probabilities and expectations, the actual results can deviate substantially from such expectations, particularly on a short-term basis. As mentioned in the most recent annual letter, our long-term goal is to achieve a ten percentage point per annum advantage over the Dow. Our advantage of 9.6 points achieved during the first six months must be regarded as substantially above average. The fortitude demonstrated by our partners in tolerating such favorable variations is commendable. We shall most certainly encounter periods when the variations are in the other direction.
我没有提及收益的细节是因为我为总体收益表现感到自豪——然而，如果我们以假设的方式实现了我们的收益，我会更高兴。出于以下两点原因我把细节分享给大家：1）各位永远有权知道我的判断是对或错；2）这也同样展示了我们玩的是概率游戏，实际的结果会和期望值差别很大，特别是在短期时间内。正如去年信中所提，我们长期的目标是年化收益高于道指10%。所以在前半年就可以积累9.6%的优势已经远远超过预期了。我们的合伙人在容忍这种有利变化方面表现出的毅力值得称道。 但肯定会遇到变化方向相反的时期。
During the first half, a series of purchases resulted in the acquisition of a controlling interest in one of the situations described in the “General Private Owner” section of the last annual letter. When such a controlling interest is acquired, the assets and earning power of the business become the immediate predominant factors in value. When a small minority interest in a company is held, earning power and assets are, of course, very important, but they represent an indirect influence on value which, in the short run, may or may not dominate the factors bearing on supply and demand which result in price.
在上半年，我们花了很多时间在购买控股公司的股份上面。当获得这样的控股权益时，企业的资产和盈利能力成为价值的直接主导因素。当持有公司的少数股权时，盈利能力和资产当然非常重要，但它们代表了对价格的间接影响，在短期内，可能会或可能不会成为影响供需的主要因素从而最终反应在股价上。
Investment Companies:
其他投资公司
We regularly compare our results with the two largest open-end investment companies (mutual funds) that follow a policy of being, typically, 95-100% invested in common stocks, and the two largest diversified closed- end investment companies. These four companies, Massachusetts Investors Trust, Investors Stock Fund, Tri- Continental Corp., and Lehman Corp., manage over 4 billion and are probably typical of most of the 30 billion investment company industry. Their results are shown in the following table. My opinion is that this performance roughly parallels that of the overwhelming majority of other investment advisory organizations which handle, in aggregate, vastly greater sums.
我们通常将收益和两家最大的开放式股票基金（95-100%的资金投放在股票市场）， 和两家最大的封闭式投资公司。这四家公司（Massachusetts Investors Trust, Investors Stock Fund, Tri- Continental Corp., Lehman Corp.）掌握了超过40亿美元的资产，差不多30亿美元投资在股票市场。他们的投资收益如下表所示。我认为这四家公司的表现基本可以代表整个投资行业的收益情况。
去年我有提到这些公司的投资收益和水塘里的鸭子一样。当水位(市场)上涨，鸭子跟着浮起来，当水位下跌，鸭子也一样。水平面在1965年上半年基本没变，所以从表中可以看出，鸭子们还是呆在那个池塘里。
As I mentioned earlier in the letter, the ebb of the tide in May and June also substantially affected us. Nevertheless, the fact we had flapped our wings a few times in the preceding four months enabled us to gain a little altitude on the rest of the flock. Utilizing a somewhat more restrained lexicon, James H. Lorie, director of the University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices was quoted in the May 25, 1965, WALL STREET JOURNAL as saying: “There is no evidence that mutual funds select stocks better than by the random method.”
在上文提到市场在五六月份的下跌也很大的影响了我们。无论如何，我们在前四个月累积的优势让我们得以保持相对道指的高收益。引用James H. Lorie在1965年华尔街日报上的话来说：“没有任何证据表明共同基金选股策略的收益要好于随机选择。”
Of course, the beauty of the American economic scene has been that random results have been pretty darned good results. The water level has been rising. In our opinion, the probabilities are that over a long period of time, it will continue to rise, though, certainly not without important interruptions. It will be our policy, however, to endeavor to swim strongly, with or against the tide. If our performance declines to a level you can achieve by floating on your back, we will turn in our suits.
当然，这也体现了美国经济好的一面，瞎选也能赚。水涨船高。在我们的观点来看，在很长一段时间，经济总体会持续上行。当然这其中一定会伴随几次大的回撤。无论在顺流或者逆流中，我们都将奋力前游。如果我们的收益降落到和在大盘水平一样的话，我们将穿上救生衣躺平。
Advance Payments and Advance Withdrawals:
提前支付和提前支取
We accept advance payments from partners and prospective partners at 6% interest from date of receipt until the end of the year. While there is no obligation to convert such advance payments to a partnership interest at the end of the year, this should be the intent at the time it is paid to us.
合伙公司接受来自合伙人的提前存款，在收到资金之日起到年底最后一天，这段时间将按照6%的利率计算利息。虽然没有义务将这部分的存款在年底转为合伙公司权益，但这应该在存入之日起就计划如此的。
Similarly, we allow partners to withdraw up to 20% of their partnership account prior to yearend and charge them 6% from date of withdrawal until yearend when it is charged against their capital account. Again, it is not intended that partners use us like a bank, but that they use the withdrawal right for a truly unexpected need for funds. Predictable needs for funds such as quarterly federal tax payments should be handled by a beginning-of- the-year reduction in capital rather than through advance withdrawals from B.P.L. during the year. The withdrawal privilege is to provide for the unanticipated.
类似的，我们也允许合伙人每年最多从他们合伙账户中提前支取总额的20%，提前支取的金额我们也将会按照6%的利率从主账户中扣除。再说一遍，希望合伙人不要把我们当作银行，但是各位在急需用钱时仍然拥有取款的权利。可以预计的资金支出，例如季度联邦税款应该在年初规划好并从资本中扣除，而非在年中从合伙公司中提前支取。年中取现的权利应该是为意外准备的。
The willingness to borrow (through advance payments) and lend (through advance withdrawals) at the same 6% rate may sound downright “un-Buffettlike”. (You can be sure it doesn’t start my adrenaline flowing.) Certainly such a no-spread arbitrage is devoid of the commercial overtones an observer might impute to the preponderance of our transactions. Nevertheless, we think it makes sense and is in the best interest of all partners.
以同样 6% 的利率借款（通过提前存款）和贷款（通过提前取款）的策略听起来可能完全“不像巴菲特”。 （可以肯定这点利率完全不会让我的肾上腺素激增。）当然，这种无价差套利毫无商业色彩，旁观者可能会认为合伙公司占了便宜。 尽管如此，我们认为这是合理的，并且符合所有合作伙伴的最佳利益。
The partner who has a large investment in indirect ownership of a group of liquid assets should have some liquidity present in his partnership interest other than at yearend. As a practical matter, we are reasonably certain that advance withdrawals will be far more than covered by advance payments. For example, on June 30, 1965, we had 98,851 of advance withdrawals and 652,931 of advance payments.
对一组流动资产的间接所有权进行大量投资的合伙人应该在其合伙权益中存在一些流动性，而不是只在年底。谈到一个实际问题，我们非常确信提前取款将远远超过预付款所涵盖的范围。 例如，1965 年 6 月 30 日，我们有 98,851 美元的提前支出款和 652,931 美元的预付款。
Why then the willingness to pay 6% for the net of advance payments over advance withdrawals when we can borrow from commercial banks at substantially lower rates? The answer is that we expect on a long-term basis to earn better than 6% (the general partner’s allocation is zero unless we do) although it is largely a matter of chance whether we achieve the 6% figure in any short period. Moreover, I can adopt a different attitude regarding the investment of money that can be expected to soon be a part of our equity capital than I can on short-term borrowed money. The advance payments have the added advantage to us of spreading the investment of new money over the year, rather than having it hit us all at once in January. On the other hand, 6% is more than can be obtained in short-term dollar secure investments by our partners, so I consider it mutually profitable.
那么既然可以低于6%的利息像银行借钱，为何还要按照这个利息去支付提前存款呢？那是因为我们相信长期收益一定会高于6%（这里没算入一般合伙人分红），倒是短期要拿到6%的收益却是个概率问题。此外，对于预计很快将成为我们股本一部分的投资资金，可以采取与短期借入资金不同的态度。 预付款对我们来说具有额外的优势，可以在一年中分散投资，而不是在一月份一次性全部投入。 另一方面，我们的合作伙伴在短期美元安全投资中可以获得6%以上的收益，因此我认为这是互利的。
Cordially, Warren E. Buffett
